Eight months into the Iran war, Washington has leverage. It should spend it at the table.

How we got here

The war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. Reuters and CNN reported that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior officials were killed in the opening hours. Iran answered with missiles at Israel, Gulf states and US bases, and shut the Strait of Hormuz, the route for roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.

A two-week ceasefire in April did not hold, and talks in Islamabad failed. On April 13 the US began a naval blockade of ships sailing to or from Iranian ports. In mid-June the two sides announced an agreement to end the fighting and reopen the strait, and the blockade was lifted. By mid-July that interim deal had collapsed: the US reimposed the blockade after attacks on shipping in the strait, and fighting resumed, according to the Associated Press.

The squeeze is working

By the US military’s own account, the blockade has done what it was designed to do. Admiral Brad Cooper, who leads US Central Command, said on October 16 that it had halted about $25 billion in Iranian crude exports. CENTCOM says 144 commercial vessels have been turned back since July. Meanwhile, oil from the rest of the Gulf has largely recovered: tanker-tracking firm Kpler put non-Iranian flows near pre-war levels, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said traffic through Hormuz, excluding Iranian oil, is close to normal.

The costs have not fallen only on Iran. Fuel prices in the United States remain high, and CNBC reported in October that the president’s approval rating had dropped to a record low amid worries about the cost of living.

Talks or strikes

Signals from Washington have swung back and forth. On October 7, Trump told a rally he no longer really wanted a deal, and NBC and Axios reported that options under discussion included “massive bombing” of Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets. By October 31, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president had not decided whether to resume strikes and preferred a diplomatic solution. Trump said talks were “going fine” but called Iran “not very reliable.”

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said a new proposal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz fully within two days, and Iranian negotiators were meeting Qatari mediators in Doha. At the same time, the AP reported that US officials privately told regional partners to prepare for possible new strikes after the November 3 midterm elections, and Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, ordered his forces to prepare responses.

Afterlight opinion: take the off-ramp while it is open

Leverage is worth most at the moment you can trade it, and that moment is now. Iran’s oil income has been cut off, President Trump says its navy, air force and air defenses have been badly weakened, and it is the one making offers. Restarting a bombing campaign aimed at energy and infrastructure would throw that leverage away in exchange for new risks: retaliation against Gulf neighbors, attacks on US bases and shipping, and another spike in the price every American pays at the pump.

Skepticism about Tehran is earned. That is an argument for verification, not against a deal. Any agreement should be built in steps the US can check: hard, inspected limits on Iran’s nuclear program; a fully reopened strait; and blockade relief that comes in stages and snaps back if Iran breaks its word. July already proved the blockade can be switched back on.

Finally, the timing of war should not be set by an election calendar, in either direction. If strikes are necessary, they will still be necessary the week after a vote. If a deal is possible, it should not have to wait for one.

What to watch

Iran’s answer to the Qatari draft, any decision on strikes after November 3, and incidents at sea in and around the Strait of Hormuz will show which way this turns.