Today's Briefing: November 5, 2026

The big picture

The election is over, and the wars did not pause for it. Markets bet that a weaker hand for the White House means an end to the Iran war is closer, and oil dropped hard. Within a day, ships were on fire again near the Strait of Hormuz. In Ukraine, Russia used the days before peace talks to hit the power grid as hard as it could. The pattern from Tuesday's briefing holds: talk and attack are running side by side, and the systems ordinary people depend on are the targets.

Iran and the Gulf

Early Thursday brought three separate ship reports in a few hours. Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy said two tankers and a tug were burning inside the strait, and later said another tanker struck a mine and burned east of it. Britain's maritime security agency, UKMTO, reported a tanker hit by two projectiles about 50 nautical miles north of Qatar's northern town of Madinat ash Shamal, according to CBS News.

On the diplomatic side, Iran has turned down Washington's latest answer. Mohsen Rezaei, the Supreme National Security Council's secretary, called the American reply "not convincing," and a statement attributed to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said anyone expecting a change in US policy was "seriously mistaken." Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, read the midterm results as Americans saying no to war. Reuters, citing an official, reported that Qatari mediators expect an answer within about 36 hours on a new proposal. Rezaei was in Moscow on Thursday to meet Vladimir Putin, and Russia's foreign ministry told its citizens not to travel to Iran.

Oil tells the story of hope and doubt. Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since September, to about $94, a long way down from its $116 peak on October 23. On Thursday, after the ship attacks, it climbed back 2.2 percent to about $96.70, CBS reported.

Russia and Ukraine

Russia sent waves of missiles and drones at Ukraine's energy system this week, cutting power across large parts of the country, and its defense ministry said it hit energy sites nationwide and port facilities in the Odesa region. The death toll from Monday's bombing of an aid distribution point in Komyshuvakha, in the Zaporizhzhia region, has risen to at least 33, President Zelenskyy said. Russian attacks killed four more civilians in Donetsk, Drop Site News reported.

The Kremlin has confirmed that American, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators will meet in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, with Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky leading Moscow's team. It will be the first US-brokered round since February. Speaking in Berlin alongside Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who urged Moscow to take the talks seriously, Zelenskyy said Russia shows little real interest in peace. The two sides remain far apart on territory and on security guarantees after the war.

Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria

Israeli fire killed three more Palestinians in Gaza on Thursday, according to the Palestinian news agency WAFA. In the West Bank, about 30 settlers took over eight homes near Jericho, and Israeli forces demolished five buildings in the village of Biddu, leaving 105 people without homes, Drop Site News reported.

In southern Lebanon, an Israeli drone strike killed one person in Qabrikha on Wednesday. Lebanon's military court issued arrest warrants for two Hezbollah members after about 780 kilograms of explosives were seized, a sign that Beirut is testing how far it can push the group.

Saudi Arabia and Syria signed a defense agreement on Wednesday that comes with more than $403 million in Saudi development loans for Syria, covering health care, housing, civil defense, a power plant in Aleppo and drinking water for Damascus and Idlib. Syria's foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, said his country may join the Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani security pact.

Sudan and the Horn of Africa

The quarrel between Sudan and Ethiopia over drone attacks has turned diplomatic: the two countries have closed each other's consulates, Drop Site News reported. Sudan accuses the Rapid Support Forces of launching drones from Ethiopian soil, which Ethiopia denies.

Washington

The war has become the first argument of the post-election season. Vice President JD Vance blamed his party's midterm losses on the Iran war, Drop Site News reported, and a coalition of advocacy groups is preparing to press Congress to vote against more war funding. Government funding runs out on December 11, which sets up the first real test of whether the new mood changes anything.

Afterlight read: what it means for you

Do not read too much into cheaper oil. The drop came from hope, and hope is not a deal. As long as tankers are burning in the Gulf, fuel prices can jump again in a single morning, and a winter of grid attacks in Ukraine is a reminder of how fast a modern country can lose its lights and heat. Use the dip: fill the tank, top up stored fuel if you keep it safely, and keep the pantry and water stocked. The next briefing comes in about three days.